Possible Scenarios on the 25th Anniversary of the 17 August 1999 Earthquake
Yıldız Technical University (YTU) Faculty of Civil Engineering Dean, Master Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy evaluated the possible earthquake scenarios expected in the Marmara Region on the 25th anniversary of the 17 August 1999 earthquake. Ersoy, drawing attention to the studies carried out after the 1999 earthquake, said: “AFAD’s founding purpose was to complete preparations before disasters occur. This strategy is indeed a good approach. However, despite such detailed studies on the Marmara Sea, how prepared will we be for a Marmara Earthquake? Unfortunately, it is not possible to say that we are fully ready in this regard. “We still have important shortcomings.”he said
Earthquake History of Marmara
Prof. Dr. Ersoy shared the following information about the earthquake history of Marmara: “Istanbul’s earthquake danger stems from the North Anatolian Fault Line. This fault forms a zone approximately 1,500 kilometers long and can potentially produce magnitude 8 earthquakes. “The fault starts from Bingöl Karlıova in the east, progresses through the Northern Anatolia Region, then enters the Sea of Marmara and reaches Saros Gulf via Şarköy.”Ersoy stated that throughout history, many major earthquakes occurred in the Marmara Sea, affecting Istanbul as well, and the last of these occurred in 1999. “Especially, we experienced the Kocaeli earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 and the Düzce earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2. “Thousands of people lost their lives during these earthquakes and we were caught unprepared for this situation.”
Legal and Structural Changes
Ersoy also touched upon the legal and structural changes made after 1999 and said: “These earthquakes led to the implementation of new laws and regulations. The establishment of AFAD in 2009 was an important step in disaster management. AFAD’s founding purpose was to prepare before disasters. “With this strategy, seafloor research in the Sea of Marmara allowed us to determine the locations of the faults.”He also stated that microzoning studies were carried out for the districts of Istanbul and the grounds were divided into various categories.
Urban Transformation Projects
Ersoy emphasized that there are still deficiencies in earthquake preparation, “The Urban Transformation Law, which came into force in 2012, could not be implemented effectively for a long time. “Removing legal and economic obstacles after 25 years is a step too late to reduce earthquake damages.”He stated that the urban transformation projects of Istanbul and the surrounding 11 provinces are quite challenging and delayed. “Earthquake should be Turkey’s first priority. There are 1.5 million residences and nearly 7 million independent units in Istanbul. Approximately 1.5 million of these are considered risky.”
Tsunami Risk and Urban Transformation
Prof. Dr. Ersoy stated that Turkey’s coasts are sensitive to both earthquakes and tsunamis. “If we are expecting an earthquake in Marmara, we should not forget the tsunami. However, this issue was not taken seriously enough in society. “After the earthquakes that occurred in 1999, the risk of tsunami also emerged.”For this reason, he emphasized that urban transformation projects should be implemented quickly and safely. “With the dynamic population of Istanbul, it is very important to take precautions against disasters and raise people’s awareness.”
The Gap Between Science and Politics
Finally, Prof. Dr. Ersoy, drawing attention to the disagreements between science and politics, said: “It must be admitted that a major earthquake in Marmara is inevitable. However, decision makers who accept this danger need to take the necessary precautions. Unfortunately, this conflict between science and politics prevents timely action.”he said
