Excess Deaths in Gaza
Gazan health officials have reported that over 38,000 individuals have lost their lives during nine months of intense conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, researchers are delving into the realm of indirect casualties to paint a more comprehensive picture of the toll and magnitude of the conflict.
Experts argue that assessing excess deaths can offer a more accurate representation of the impact of conflicts and other societal disruptions. For instance, if an individual succumbs to a chronic illness due to the unavailability of medical treatment in a war-ravaged area, that fatality can be linked to the conflict.
A recent letter published in The Lancet has ignited discussions on the concept of excess deaths in Gaza. In the letter, three researchers attempted to estimate the number of individuals who have perished or might perish as a consequence of the war, in addition to the casualties reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. This estimation has sparked debate, with some researchers urging caution in making such projections.
One of the challenges pointed out by these researchers is the reliance on data from Gaza’s health sector, which has been severely impacted by the conflict. Additionally, predicting the progression of epidemics and famine, two grave threats that can be triggered by war, adds another layer of complexity to estimating excess deaths. Complicating matters further, Israel has restricted access for researchers to enter Gaza since the conflict began in October.
The Lancet letter emphasized the importance of accounting for indirect deaths in Gaza, describing it as “difficult but essential.” Drawing on studies of past conflicts, the authors suggested that for every direct casualty, three to 15 individuals may die indirectly. Using a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per direct death, they proposed that approximately 186,000 deaths could eventually be linked to the Gaza conflict.
Although The Lancet clarified that the letter had not undergone peer review, it generated significant reactions. The Board of Deputies of British Jews, representing the Jewish community in Britain, dismissed the estimate as mere conjecture.
