This week serves as a sort of pause for the sport of baseball. The amateur draft, followed by the All-Star Game, followed by the Hall of Fame induction ceremony feels a bit like a mid-season side quest, a break from the regular so that players and fans alike can celebrate the game’s very best at various levels. Then, it’s full throttle toward the trade deadline.
In preparation, we’re sorting teams into preemptive trade tiers. Who’s best positioned to buy or to sell? And who is still deciding on a direction? In last year’s edition, we created a “Tailors” tier for those clubs looking to thread the needle between buying and selling.
This year, given the wide-open middle ground of the National League, we could probably lump a third of all teams into a Tailors category. Rather than do that, we’ll break down the would-be Tailors by those that seem to be trending to the buy-side and those closer to selling. They might still thread the needle, but these next two weeks could push them to pick a lane. For now, here’s where things stand with all 30 teams as we gear up for the second half.
Tier 1: Could be (should be?) aggressive buyers
Team
Record
Analysis
New York Yankees
58-40
To borrow a line from The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner: The New York Yankees need help. Except for the days when Ben Rice hits three homers, the Yankees’ lineup has too often been a two-man show. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are top-of-the-charts All-Stars, but no other healthy Yankees hitter has at least 100 plate appearances with an above-average OPS+ this season.
Seattle Mariners
52-46
Three things we know for certain about the Mariners: They have a ton of starting pitching, they could use some offense, and their president of baseball operations, Jerry Dipoto, is not one to sit on his hands.
San Diego Padres
50-49
Like the Mariners, the Padres have a tendency not to stand still. They broke open the trading season with their early-May deal for All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez, and now that they’re firmly in the wild-card hunt, there’s little reason to expect that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will stop shopping.
Los Angeles Dodgers
56-41
It’s not going as scripted in Hollywood. Among the 15 players on the Dodgers IL are Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Jason Heyward (one-third of their Opening Day lineup); Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Walker Buehler (the would-be top of their rotation).
Tier 2: Typical buyers
Team
Record
Analysis
Atlanta Braves
53-42
An outfield addition (and maybe more than one) seems inevitable for Atlanta, but it is unclear if that would mean an understated, practical trade or a bigger splash for unmistakable impact.
Baltimore Orioles
58-38
Given their abundance of young talent, the Orioles are clearly playing a long game. But their offseason trade for Corbin Burnes showed they’re also ready and willing to make shorter-term investments.
Philadelphia Phillies
62-34
They don’t call him “Dealer Dave” for nothing, but Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not deal exclusively in splashes and blockbusters.
Cleveland Guardians
58-37
Entering the season with roughly 1-in-3 odds of making the playoffs, the Guardians now have the fifth-best playoff odds in the majors.
Tier 3: Trending to the buy side
Team
Record
Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
50-46
The Cardinals rarely sell. In fact, they’ve really only done it once in 17 years under president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.
Boston Red Sox
53-42
A month ago, the Red Sox were a perpetually .500 team that couldn’t get over the hump. But that was before they won four straight series against the Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays and Reds.
Pittsburgh Pirates
48-48
Their record suggests they will be sellers, but their starting rotation and a handful of good, young position players suggest they could maybe thread the needle or even add players who can help them continue to get better in the near future.
Tier 4: Trending to the sell side
Team
Record
Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks
49-48
After an unexpected run to the World Series last season, the Diamondbacks tried to reload for a repeat, but their rotation has been devastated by injuries and the puzzle pieces just haven’t come together as planned.
Cincinnati Reds
47-50
Yes, the Reds just traded for veteran outfielder Austin Slater, but acquiring a .200 hitter at the expense of a 30-year-old reliever doesn’t make a team a “buyer.”
Chicago Cubs
47-51
After some “will they, won’t they” questions last season, the Cubs got hot in late July and ultimately bought a little at the 2023 deadline but still missed the playoffs.
Tier 5: Typical sellers
Team
Record
Analysis
Washington Nationals
44-53
The Nationals were preparing to sell, having determined that their stronger-than-many-expected season indicated that they’re on the right track but not yet where they need to be.
Detroit Tigers
47-50
Like the Nationals, the Tigers overperformed expectations early in the season, but they too have fallen firmly into the sell category.
Tier 6: Could be (should be?) heavy sellers
Team
Record
Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
44-52
At this point, any Blue Jays road trip could be viewed through the lens of a potential trade partner. The Jays are supposed to be contenders but clearly are not.
Colorado Rockies
34-63
Since 2011, the Rockies have won 90 games once, been to the playoffs twice, and finished in fourth or fifth place 10 times.
This Week in Baseball: Trade Deadline Preparations
