The New Era of College Football Playoffs: Sleeper Teams to Watch in 2024
As college football gears up for a transformative postseason beginning in 2024, the introduction of a 12-team College Football Playoff is set to reshape the landscape of the game. This new format will include automatic bids for the top five ranked conference champions, alongside seven at-large selections. With this expansion, a greater number of teams will have a legitimate chance to contend for a national title than ever before.
While many of the nation’s elite programs are expected to secure their spots in the top 12 annually, the new playoff system opens the door for unforeseen surprises, particularly in its inaugural year. Below, The Athletic’s college football writers share their insights on this season’s most intriguing sleeper teams poised to make a mark in the College Football Playoff.
- Virginia Tech
The Hokies are looking to reclaim their competitive edge, possibly fielding their best team since the retirement of Frank Beamer. Last season, quarterback Kyron Drones sparked a revival, throwing for 17 touchdowns against just three interceptions, while also rushing for 818 yards. With a strong finish to the season, including a bowl victory, Tech is primed for success. The defense, featuring standout lineman Antwaun Powell-Ryland, returns many key players, bolstering their chances significantly. With a top-five ranking in national roster production according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Virginia Tech could very well be the sleeper team to watch.
- Iowa State
The Cyclones are in a strong position heading into the season, returning nine starters on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Rocco Becht is emerging as a potential star, supported by his top four receivers and the defense’s leading tacklers. After impressive victories against Oklahoma State and Kansas State last year, Iowa State aims to build momentum as they face a challenging schedule, including a significant matchup against Utah.
- Louisville
After a successful 10-win season under head coach Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals are set to continue their upward trajectory. With a solid defense anchored by end Ashton Gillotte, the key to their success will be the performance of Texas Tech transfer quarterback Tyler Shough. The schedule presents opportunities for marquee wins against teams like Notre Dame, Clemson, and Miami, making Louisville a team to keep an eye on.
- West Virginia
The Mountaineers could be a dark horse in the playoff race. Quarterback Garrett Greene has the potential to be a Heisman contender, especially if he can lead the team to an upset victory against Penn State in the opening week. With seven home games on the schedule, including matchups against Kansas and UCF, West Virginia has ample opportunities to make a statement.
- Texas State
Ranked atop the West Division in the Sun Belt preseason poll, the Bobcats are looking to build on an impressive 8-5 season. Head coach G.J. Kinne has bolstered his roster by adding quarterback Jordan McCloud, the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year. With winnable nonconference games against Arizona State and UTSA, plus a favorable Sun Belt schedule, Texas State is positioned to surprise this season.
- UCF
The Knights made a strong debut in the Big 12 by reaching a bowl game last season. Under head coach Gus Malzahn, the roster has been significantly enhanced with 27 new players, including quarterback K.J. Jefferson from Arkansas. With two prolific rushers returning, UCF is poised to light up the scoreboard and challenge for a playoff spot.
- UNLV
UNLV is making waves under head coach Barry Odom, who has revitalized the program. After reaching the Mountain West championship game in his first season, the Rebels are looking to build on that success. The quarterback position remains a critical focus after Jayden Maiava’s transfer, but the surrounding talent could propel UNLV into playoff contention. Their schedule includes pivotal nonconference matchups against Houston and Kansas.
- Rutgers
Believe it or not, the Scarlet Knights could be on the brink of a breakthrough season. With a solid recruiting class and a returning roster that nearly upset Ohio State last year, the potential is there. Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is set to lead the offense, supported by standout running back Kyle Monangai. The favorable schedule, which avoids several top-tier teams, further enhances their chances.
- Wisconsin
The Badgers could be the wild card in the playoff race, especially with their high-stakes matchup against Alabama at home. The excitement surrounding new quarterback Tyler Van Dyke adds to the intrigue. Notably, if Wisconsin can navigate tough games against USC and Oregon, they might find themselves in playoff discussions by season’s end.
- South Florida
After a remarkable turnaround from 1-11 to 7-6 last season, the Bulls are gaining momentum. With quarterback Byrum Brown back and an improving defense, USF is on the rise. Although they face tough nonconference opponents, a favorable conference schedule could lead to a strong finish if they can emerge with a winning record in their opening games.
- SMU
The Mustangs are set to make a splash in the ACC after an impressive 11-win season and an AAC championship last year. With quarterback Preston Stone returning after a remarkable season, they are ready to compete at a higher level. After being narrowly edged out for a New Year’s Six bid last year, the Mustangs have the motivation to prove themselves this season.
- Tulane
With new coach Jon Sumrall, Tulane is set to build upon their success from previous seasons. Sumrall’s experience at Troy has laid the groundwork for a strong program. The Green Wave’s schedule includes crucial games against Kansas State and Oklahoma, providing ample opportunity to impress the playoff committee.
- Fresno State
In a competitive G5 landscape, Fresno State is looking to capitalize on opportunities. After a nine-win season last year and the return of quarterback Mikey Keene, they have a solid foundation. With a favorable schedule ahead, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to challenge for the guaranteed G5 playoff spot.
(Top illustration photos: Chris Jones, Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
