Senator Jacky Rosen Leads in Nevada Senate Race
Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat from Nevada, is gaining momentum in her bid for re-election, as recent polls indicate she is pulling ahead of her Republican opponent, Sam Brown. This race, which was previously perceived as a potential gain for the GOP, has shifted significantly in Rosen’s favor according to multiple surveys released this week.
Polling data from the Cook Political Report and a bipartisan team of BSG and GS Strategy Group, released on Thursday morning, reveals that Rosen currently enjoys a substantial lead over Brown, with an impressive margin. Once categorized as a tossup in Cook’s election ratings, the race is now leaning decidedly toward the Democratic candidate.
The surveys, conducted between July 25 and August 2, show Rosen leading by an astonishing 18 points. Earlier polling conducted in May, before Brown secured the Republican nomination, indicated Rosen was ahead of a generic Republican candidate by a significant margin. However, a poll from The New York Times and Siena College around that time suggested a much tighter race. The latest findings from Cook align with a Nevada poll released by a Republican strategist on Tuesday, which also indicated Rosen’s commanding 12-point lead.
Jessica Taylor, who serves as Cook’s editor for Senate and gubernatorial elections, commented that while Rosen’s 18-point lead might be an outlier, it nonetheless highlights a widening gap that Brown must work hard to bridge. Taylor attributes Rosen’s success to aggressive advertising efforts and a compelling narrative focused on abortion and reproductive rights, which are critical issues for garnering support from women and independent voters—two demographics where Rosen is currently performing well.
Despite Brown’s attempts to soften his stance on abortion to attract independents, he previously endorsed a controversial 20-week ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. This position has provided Democrats with a powerful opportunity to label him as an extremist in their campaign messaging.
- “Brown has significant work to do,” Taylor stated.
- However, she also noted, “I wouldn’t say it’s insurmountable. This race is still very much in play.”
- She added, “But we cannot ignore the clear advantage that Rosen has established.”
The Cook polling data, which was nearly two weeks old at the time of its release, was gathered prior to Vice President Kamala Harris‘ announcement of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate for the Democratic presidential ticket. When contacted for comments, analysts from the Cook Political Report indicated that they required additional time to conduct a thorough analysis of the data.
Interestingly, while Rosen leads Brown by a substantial margin, Cook’s presidential swing state poll shows former President Donald J. Trump with a slight edge over Harris in Nevada. Taylor expressed surprise at how significantly Rosen is outperforming Harris in her own electoral contest.
In her concluding remarks, Taylor stated, “At this point, I would much rather be in Rosen’s position than Brown’s.” However, she cautioned, “In Nevada, you can take nothing for granted.”
