Analysis of General David Petraeus
General David Petraeus, who was CIA Director and former US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander, made important assessments regarding the regional tensions that increased with the attacks launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip on October 7. These events reached a new level with the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on July 31. Speaking to the London-based Iran International channel, Petraeus emphasized that Iran must respond to this assassination.
Iran’s Response and Regional Dynamics
“This incident is a major blow to Iran’s honor and a serious intelligence and security failure. Therefore, a response is essential,” General Petraeus said. However, he said he did not think Iran wanted to engage in a “real and direct” war with Israel. At the same time, he said, “To be clear, I do not think Israel wants to engage in a full-scale war with Hezbollah or Iran.”
Negative Effects of War
Stating that both sides would avoid engaging in such a war, Petraeus stated that he thought this could be a conflict that would lead to great destruction for both sides. “I think that both sides would avoid engaging in a full-fledged war because they are afraid of the destruction it could bring,” he said.
Potential Targets and Expectations of Retaliation
Petraeus noted that possible targets for Iran’s expected retaliation could include “striking military facilities, critical infrastructure or a major port.” He shared his thoughts on the Haniyeh assassination, saying, “I believe that the Israeli intelligence services have once again demonstrated how deeply they penetrate various elements inside Iran.”
Views on US Middle East Policy
General Petraeus described Iran as an “enemy” that ultimately aims to remove the US from the Middle East. Emphasizing that withdrawing from the region is not a realistic option for any US administration, Petraeus made the analogy of “the US’s effort to withdraw from the Middle East is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia.”
